Kenya’s electric two-wheeler (E2W) market is fast approaching the tipping point as demand is growing and policy support is strengthening. Projected estimates suggest that the sector could reach a cumulative value of $1 billion–4.5 billion by 2035. Yet capital misalignment, not technology or demand, is now the primary constraint to scale. Financing exists across the value chain but needs to realign to match the risk profiles and cash flow dynamics of importers, assemblers, battery infrastructure, and price-sensitive consumers. It flows comfortably where collateral is conventional and risk is familiar. It hesitates where integration risk, working capital intensity, policy uncertainty, and new asset classes such as batteries and swap infrastructure require adapted financial instruments.

Intellecap, in collaboration with the William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan, has developed this white paper to articulate a clear thesis: scaling Kenya’s electric two-wheeler market requires a deliberate restructuring and sequencing of capital. The paper sets out a four-phase roadmap designed to realign risk, deepen the financial ecosystem, de-risk private sector engagement, and progressively institutionalize the asset class, ultimately positioning Kenya as a regional anchor market where the E2W market is commercially resilient, scalable, and self-sustaining.